Politics
Analysis: Russian troops in Moldova — main remaining obstacle to CFE treaty ratification
Reading Time: 4 minutesRussian troops in Moldova — main remaining obstacle to CFE treaty ratification
Author: Vladimir Socor, Eurasia Daily Monitor
With Russian troops on their way out from two bases in Georgia, the international politics of CFE Treaty ratification focuses increasingly on Moldova. The OSCE’s Permanent Council-Forum for Security Cooperation special joint meeting on May 23, with Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov’s participation, reflected this development. As Russian officials from President Vladimir Putin on down threaten to scuttle the treaty unless Western countries ratify it, Moldova may come under growing pressures from now on.
The continuing presence of Russian forces in Moldova remains the single biggest obstacle to Russia’s push for ratification of the 1999-adapted CFE treaty. Russia can now be expected to grow bolder in demanding ratification of the CFE Treaty even as Russia keeps its troops on Moldova’s territory. Russian diplomats also rely on some European counterparts to agree that Russia’s military presence in Moldova should not hinder the broader goal of bringing the CFE Treaty into force as part of the European arms-control agenda. For some Europeans, that kind of sentiment can more easily lead to concessions to Russia when only Moldova is involved, once the Russian troops are out of Batumi and Akhalkalaki in Georgia (albeit retaining the Gudauta base there).
Russian arguments and rhetorical devices include:
1) Russia undertook no “obligation” or “commitment” in 1999 regarding its forces in Moldova (although the 1999 documents show that it did);
2) Russian forces are stationed “in Transnistria” (implying a separate status for Transnistria, outside Moldova);
3) Russia is willing to remove its massive arms and ammunition stockpiles “from Transnistria,” but Tiraspol’s authorities presumably “do not permit” this;
4) Russian troops must stay on to guard those dangerous stockpiles; and
5) Russian troops there “keep the peace” and would not withdraw until a political settlement is in place (which Russia in the meantime stonewalls).
Western officials sometimes call vaguely for withdrawal of “Russian ammunition” (omitting troops); or troop withdrawal “from Transnistria” (implying some change of status; particularly counterproductive when phrased as “from Georgia and Transnistria); or withdrawal linked to political settlement of the conflict (the 1999 Istanbul agreement actually eliminated such a linkage, which Moscow had previously introduced). Such remarks sometimes reflect imprecision of language, sometimes political signals. In either case, Russia can well interpret such remarks as an encouragement to keep the troops in Moldova while pressing for CFE treaty ratification regardless.
Moscow hopes to exploit the weak position of Germany’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in this regard. That ministry, along with a few other European chancelleries, is prepared to exempt Russian “peacekeeping” troops from the obligation to withdraw. As Ottfried Nassauer, head of the Berlin Information Center for Transatlantic Security, sums up that position, “Germany accepts that parts of Russia’s troops in Moldova and Georgia can be regarded as peacekeepers on the basis of agreements with Russia. Consequently, Russia has basically fulfilled its [Istanbul 1999] pledges” (Der Tagesspiegel, April 30).
Furthermore, Germany informally leads a group of four or five West European countries that want to see a political settlement of the Transnistria conflict before the Russian troops withdraw from Moldova. However, this approach only reinforces the intransigence of Tiraspol’s authorities, who stonewall the negotiations in their capacity as “party to the conflict” with Moldova (whereas Russia is the real party to the conflict with Moldova). Negotiations in the shadow of Russian troops could lead either nowhere (which has been the case for 15 years) or to terms of settlement distorted in Russia favor (as almost happened several times in recent years). Moreover, Berlin’s position gives Russia an incentive to block a political settlement indefinitely, citing the settlement’s absence as an excuse for keeping Russian troops in place.
In the OSCE’s May 23 special meeting, Moldova’s delegation responded to Lavrov in more explicit and forthright terms, compared with the collective statements of the EU (with which Moldova aligned itself as a partner country) and NATO. It said, “The Moldovan authorities firmly insist on the complete and unconditional fulfillment of commitments undertaken at Istanbul concerning the early and complete withdrawal of Russia’s troops and armaments from the territory of Moldova.”
In Chisinau’s view, “complete” means no exemption for Russian “peacekeeping” troops; “unconditional” means not linked to a political settlement or to Tiraspol’s consent; and “early” means not sequenced with some other, hypothetical developments on the ground. The United States comes close to supporting this position, as in Ambassador Julie Finley’s response to Lavrov in the May 23 Permanent Council session at the OSCE.
Moldova calls for an international mission of civilian and military observers to replace the Russian “peacekeeping” troops and open the way to the country’s reunification. Chisinau has not wavered in this two-fold goal since adopting it in 2004-2005. However, Chisinau has recently miscalculated by seeking Moscow’s consent to those goals in return for far-reaching Moldovan political concessions to Tiraspol and Moscow. Furthermore, Chisinau negotiated with Moscow bilaterally, under the pressure of Russia’s year-long economic embargo, venturing outside the 5+2 international format from a position of unprecedented weakness (see EDM, April 13).
While its May 23 statement at the OSCE indicates that Chisinau has (again) dropped its illusions about Moscow, a somewhat different message emerges from President Vladimir Voronin’s long interview with RIA-Novosti, published that same day. There, Voronin invests his full hopes in Putin personally while blaming Russian officialdom and other factors for not letting Putin deliver a good settlement in Transnistria.
Russia will likely act on two fronts in parallel: Pressuring or cajoling Moldova to consent to the stationing of Russian troops while suggesting to West Europeans that Moldova is worth sacrificing for the sake of arms control and relations with Russia. If Moldova succumbs and accepts the stationing of Russian troops under some formula, many European countries would be ready to ratify the adapted CFE Treaty and bring the three Baltic states under its purview. Developments could take a different course, however, if a preponderance of European countries along with the United States consistently demand the withdrawal of Russian troops from Moldova’s territory, internationally certified closure of the Gudauta base in Georgia, and the identification and removal of unaccounted-for treaty-limited equipment accumulated in Transnistria, Abkhazia, and Armenian-controlled territory of Azerbaijan.
A new football club has earned a leading place in the UEFA Champions League groups and starred in the headlines of worldwide football news yesterday. The Football Club Sheriff Tiraspol claimed a win with the score 2-1 against Real Madrid on the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid. That made Sheriff Tiraspol the leader in Group D of the Champions League, including the football club in the groups of the most important European interclub competition for the first time ever.
International media outlets called it a miracle, a shock and a historic event, while strongly emphasizing the origin of the team and the existing political conflict between the two banks of the Dniester. “Football club from a pro-Russian separatist enclave in Moldova pulls off one of the greatest upsets in Champions League history,” claimed the news portals. “Sheriff crushed Real!” they said.
Moldovans made a big fuss out of it on social media, splitting into two groups: those who praised the team and the Republic of Moldova for making history and those who declared that the football club and their merits belong to Transnistria – a problematic breakaway region that claims to be a separate country.
Both groups are right and not right at the same time, as there is a bunch of ethical, political, social and practical matters that need to be considered.
Is it Moldova?
First of all, every Moldovan either from the right or left bank of Dniester (Transnistria) is free to identify himself with this achievement or not to do so, said Vitalie Spranceana, a sociologist, blogger, journalist and urban activist. According to him, boycotting the football club for being a separatist team is wrong.
At the same time, “it’s an illusion to think that territory matters when it comes to football clubs,” Spranceana claimed. “Big teams, the ones included in the Champions League, have long lost their connection both with the countries in which they operate, and with the cities in which they appeared and to which they linked their history. […] In the age of globalized commercial football, teams, including the so-called local ones, are nothing more than global traveling commercial circuses, incidentally linked to cities, but more closely linked to all sorts of dirty, semi-dirty and cleaner cash flows.”
What is more important in this case is the consistency, not so much of citizens, as of politicians from the government who have “no right to celebrate the success of separatism,” as they represent “the national interests, not the personal or collective pleasures of certain segments of the population,” believes the political expert Dionis Cenusa. The victory of FC Sheriff encourages Transnistrian separatism, which receives validation now, he also stated.
“I don’t know how it happens that the “proud Moldovans who chose democracy”, in their enthusiasm for Sheriff Tiraspol’s victory over Real Madrid, forget the need for total and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria!” declared the journalist Vitalie Ciobanu.
Nowadays, FC Sheriff Tiraspol has no other choice than to represent Moldova internationally. For many years, the team used the Moldovan Football Federation in order to be able to participate in championships, including international ones. That is because the region remains unrecognised by the international community. However, the club’s victory is presented as that of Transnistria within the region, without any reference to the Republic of Moldova, its separatist character being applied in this case especially.
Is it a victory?
In fact, FC Sheriff Tiraspol joining the Champions League is a huge image breakthrough for the Transnistrian region, as the journalist Madalin Necsutu claimed. It is the success of the Tiraspol Club oligarchic patrons. From the practical point of view, FC Sheriff Tiraspol is a sports entity that serves its own interests and the interests of its owners, being dependent on the money invested by Tiraspol (but not only) oligarchs.
Here comes the real dilemma: the Transnistrian team, which is generously funded by money received from corruption schemes and money laundering, is waging an unequal fight with the rest of the Moldovan football clubs, the journalist also declared. The Tiraspol team is about to raise 15.6 million euro for reaching the Champions League groups and the amounts increase depending on their future performance. According to Necsutu, these money will go directly on the account of the club, not to the Moldovan Football Federation, creating an even bigger gab between FC Sheriff and other football clubs from Moldova who have much more modest financial possibilities.
“I do not see anything useful for Moldovan football, not a single Moldovan player is part of FC Sheriff Tiraspol. I do not see anything beneficial for the Moldovan Football Federation or any national team.”
Is it only about football?
FC Sheriff Tiraspol, with a total estimated value of 12.8 million euros, is controlled by Victor Gusan and Ilya Kazmala, being part of Sheriff Holding – a company that controls the trade of wholesale, retail food, fuels and medicine by having monopolies on these markets in Transnistria. The holding carries out car trading activities, but also operates in the field of construction and real estate. Gusan’s people also hold all of the main leadership offices in the breakaway region, from Parliament to the Prime Minister’s seat or the Presidency.
The football club is supported by a holding alleged of smuggling, corruption, money laundering and organised crime. Moldovan media outlets published investigations about the signals regarding the Sheriff’s holding involvement in the vote mobilization and remuneration of citizens on the left bank of the Dniester who participated in the snap parliamentary elections this summer and who were eager to vote for the pro-Russian socialist-communist bloc.
Considering the above, there is a great probability that the Republic of Moldova will still be represented by a football club that is not identified as being Moldovan, being funded from obscure money, growing in power and promoting the Transnistrian conflict in the future as well.
Photo: unknown
Prime Minister of the Republic of Moldova, Natalia Gavrilita, together with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nicu Popescu, pay an official visit to Brussels, between September 27-28, being invited by High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell Fontelles.
Today, Prime Minister had a meeting with Charles Michel, President of the European Council. The Moldovan PM thanked the senior European official for the support of the institution in strengthening democratic processes, reforming the judiciary and state institutions, economic recovery and job creation, as well as increasing citizens’ welfare. Natalia Gavrilita expressed her confidence that the current visit laid the foundations for boosting relations between the Republic of Moldova and the European Union, so that, in the next period, it would be possible to advance high-level dialogues on security, justice and energy. Officials also exchanged views on priorities for the Eastern Partnership Summit, to be held in December.
“The EU is open to continue to support the Republic of Moldova and the ambitious reform agenda it proposes. Moldova is an important and priority partner for us,” said Charles Michel.
Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita also met with Paolo Gentiloni, European Commissioner for Economy, expressing her gratitude for the support received through the OMNIBUS macro-financial assistance program. The two officials discussed the need to advance the recovery of money from bank fraud, to strengthen sustainable mechanisms for supporting small and medium-sized enterprises in Moldova, and to standardize the customs and taxes as one of the main conditions for deepening cooperation with the EU in this field.
Additionally, Prime Minister spoke about the importance of the Eastern Partnership and the Deep Free Trade Agreement, noting that the Government’s policies are aimed at developing an economic model aligned with the European economic model, focused on digitalization, energy efficiency and the green economy.
A common press release of the Moldovan Prime Minister with High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the Commission, Josep Borrell Fontelles, took place today, where the agenda of Moldova’s reforms and the main priorities to focus on in the coming months were presented: judiciary reform; fighting COVID-19 pandemic; promoting economic recovery and conditions for growth and job creation; strengthening state institutions and resilience of the country.
“I am here to relaunch the dialogue between my country and the European Union. Our partnership is strong, but I believe there is room for even deeper cooperation and stronger political, economic and sectoral ties. I am convinced that this partnership is the key to the prosperity of our country and I hope that we will continue to strengthen cooperation.”
The Moldovan delegation met Didier Reynders, European Commissioner for Justice. Tomorrow, there are scheduled common meetings with Oliver Varhelyi, European Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement, Adina Valean, European Commissioner for Transport and Kadri Simson, European Commissioner for Energy.
Prime Minister will also attend a public event, along with Katarina Mathernova, Deputy Director-General for Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations.
Photo: gov.md
Politics
Promo-LEX about Maia Sandu’s UN speech: The president must insist on appointing a rapporteur to monitor the situation of human rights in Transnistria
The President of the Republic of Moldova, Maia Sandu, pays an official visit to New York, USA, between September 21-22. There, she participates in the work of the United Nations General Assembly. According to a press release of the President’s Office, the official will deliver a speech at the tribune of the United Nations.
In this context, the Promo-LEX Association suggested the president to request the appointment of a special rapporteur in order to monitor the situation of human rights in the Transnistrian region. According to Promo-LEX, the responsibility for human rights violations in the Transnistrian region arises as a result of the Russian Federation’s military, economic and political control over the Tiraspol regime.
“We consider it imperative to insist on the observance of the international commitments assumed by the Russian Federation regarding the withdrawal of the armed forces and ammunition from the territory of the country,” the representatives of Promo-LEX stated. They consider the speech before the UN an opportunity “to demand the observance of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights by the Russian Federation with reference to this territory which is in its full control.”
“It is important to remember about the numerous cases of murder, torture, ill-treatment, forced enlistment in illegal military structures, the application of pseudo-justice in the Transnistrian region, all carried out under the tacit agreement of the Russian Federation. These findings stem from dozens of rulings and decisions issued by the European Court of Human Rights, which found that Russia is responsible for human rights violations in the region.”
The association representatives expressed their hope that the president of the country would give priority to issues related to the human rights situation in the Transnistrian region and would call on relevant international actors to contribute to guaranteeing fundamental human rights and freedoms throughout Moldova.
They asked Maia Sandu to insist on the observance of the obligation to evacuate the ammunition and the military units of the Russian Federation from the territory of the Republic of Moldova, to publicly support the need for the Russian Federation to implement the ECtHR rulings on human rights violations in the Transnistrian region, and to request the appointment of an UN Human Rights Council special rapporteur to monitor the human rights situation in the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova.
**
The Promo-LEX Association concluded that 14 out of 25 actions planned within the National Action Plan for the years 2018–2022 concerning respecting human rights in Transnistria were not carried out by the responsible authorities.
The association expressed its concern and mentioned that there are a large number of delays in the planned results. “There is a lack of communication and coordination between the designated institutions, which do not yet have a common vision of interaction for the implementation of the plan.”
Promo-LEX requested the Government of the Republic of Moldova to re-assess the reported activities and to take urgent measures, “which would exclude superficial implementation of future activities and increase the level of accountability of the authorities.”
Photo: peacekeeping.un.org
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