Politics
Why Moldova matters? – Possibly even more than Georgia or Ukraine
Paul Goble is editor at “Window on Eurasia” publication. He is also a longtime U.S. Government expert on the nationals and religions in the post-Soviet region. Read below his testimony for a hearing of the U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe on “Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014: Is Moldova Next?”
“Mr. Chairman, thank you for calling this hearing and for giving me the opportunity to speak. The topicality of its focus is obvious: All of us in preparing our remarks have had to consider the very real risk that developments on the ground are moving at such a rapid rate that anything we had been planning to say even a few hours ago may have been overtaken by events in the interim. And its importance cannot be overstated: what Moscow is up to in Moldova could easily prove more fateful to Europe and the West than did Russia’s invasion of Georgia six years ago and its ongoing aggression in Ukraine now.
The three reasons that is the case can be quickly stated: First of all, the outcome of Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine and thus of his entire imperial project will depend on what Moscow does in Moldova’s Transdniestria. Second, in his efforts to derail Moldova’s efforts to join Europe, Putin has put in play the Gagauz, a Turkic community in the country’s southeast that would likely secede violently if Transdniestria exits with Russian help. And third, the demise of the Moldovan state which these two things would cause could trigger changes not only in the borders of southeastern Europe but also force the federalization of a greater Romanian state, reverse the post-World War I settlement there, and contribute to a radical destabilization of the continent.
Each of these possibilities requires additional comment, and that will be the focus of my remarks. But because these dangers are so great and because there are ways that we can counter them, I would like to conclude by suggesting five steps the United States should take now to recognize Moldova’s importance and to prevent Putin from achieving his destabilizing goals there and elsewhere. We have enormous reserves of soft power, indeed, an overwhelming amount of it compared to Russia; and if we act expeditiously, we can prevent a situation from emerging in which we might be forced to use hard power, something that in this theater we are at a relative disadvantage.
For two decades, Moscow has supported both actively and covertly the breakaway Transdniestria region, a place where many have observed that the August 1991 coup against Mikhail Gorbachev succeeded and one which has one of the largest Soviet arms caches which the regime has sold off to terrorists and others to support itself. The Putin regime has declared Transdniestria “a frozen conflict,” and many in the West have accepted the idea that there must be a negotiated settlement in which Moscow will have the whip hand. That acceptance, of course, has meant that no settlement is possible because the Russian government prefers managed instability to a stable, thriving and pro-Western Moldova.
In recent weeks, Moscow propagandists have changed their thematics on Transnistria. They have proclaimed it “a second Crimea,” arguing that like Crimea, its population which Moscow untruthfully claims consists of a Russian majority, Transnistria wants to become part of the Russian Federation and that Moscow should agree. (For an example of this line of argument, see odnako.org/blogs/pridnestrove-vtoroy-krim-kak-eto-budet-i-kto-nachnyot-voynu-chtobi-etogo-ne-sluchilos/).
But more disturbingly, Russian writers and officials have begun talking about Transnistria as an ally of Russia’s in Putin’s project of creating “Novorossiya,” a new Moscow client state stretching from Crimea in the east to Transnistria in the West and reducing Ukraine to a landlocked country or even eliminating it altogether via partition. There have already been credible reports that armed individuals and groups from Transnistria have entered southwestern Ukraine and Odessa in support of secessionist groups there. If Moscow does launch an overt invasion of Ukraine, in support of its current covert subversion of that country, it seems clear that Transnistria will play a major supporting role, at a minimum forcing Kyiv to divide its forces and at a maximum catching Ukraine in a two-front war.
The second Russian action in Moldova, one that has attracted far less attention but that may ultimately play an equally large geopolitical role, is Moscow’s promotion of Gagauz separatism. The Gagauz, a 200,000-strong nation living in a dispersed area about 80 km southeast of Chisinau, have long wanted greater linguistic and political autonomy. In the early 1990s, their activism forced the Moldovan government to cede more power to them and to agree, should Moldova’s external borders be changed by the exit of Transnistria, to the right of the Gagauz to move toward independence.
The Gagauz have neither the numbers, nor the arms supply, nor the international contacts that the regime in Transnistria does, but they do have one important political resource in addition to the support they are getting from Moscow: they are Christian Turks and thus enjoy the attention and potential support of both the Moscow Patriarchate and the Republic of Turkey. In the event of a crisis, either or both could come to their aid, something the Russian government undoubtedly would use as a cover to promote a new wave of secessionism. If both Transnistria and a Gagauzia defined in the broadest terms were to secede, Moldova would be left a rump state where a large percentage of the population would likely press for union with Romania.
And that is the third action that Russia has an interest in. Indeed, some in Moscow appear to be more interested in destabilizing a broader region and undermining Europe than even in seizing control of particular territories for the social and economic well-being Moscow would have to bear enormous costs. (That risk has already been noted by Russian politicians and commentators in the case of Crimea, and they have suggested that what Moscow should seek is effective influence rather than total control and thus total responsibility.)
What would happen if a Moscow-provoked disintegration of Moldova led to its union with Romania? Almost certainly, given the differences in historical experience arising from Soviet control, that new state would be federalized. Federalization in turn would spark demands for a Hungarian autonomy in the north, and such demands, given the Hungarian government in place, would likely enjoy the support of Budapest. That could lead to the kind of controversy that the post-1918 settlements were designed to prevent and thus to destabilization in an even larger part of the European continent.
None of these things, as much as Vladimir Putin may desire them, are inevitable. Indeed, they can be countered effectively if we take steps now. I would like to propose five:
• First, we need to recognize Moldova’s centrality to our security concerns and to build up expertise. For too long, the US has treated Moldova as, in the words of some officials, “an orphan country,” because few Americans have developed expertise on this region and because many Moldovans in the West act so closely with the Romanians that people do not see the difference.
• Second, we need to expand Western broadcasts to Moldova and especially Russian-language broadcasts. Too many people in Transnistria and Gagauzia turn to Moscow television for news and information. What they get of course is Russian propaganda. It is time for us to create a Russian-language channel for Russian speakers who are citizens of Russia’s neighbors and not potential citizens of some mythical Russian Empire.
• Third, we need to promote change within Moldova not by holding it up to standards that will allow us to say no to aid but by means of educational and professional exchanges that will send Americans to Moldova and bring Moldovans to the US. Such exchanges were the heart and soul of the Marshal Plan and played a key role in creating the Europe we see today.
• Fourth, we need to recognize that our approach to Transnistria has been wrong. Cooperating with Russia when Moscow is really prepared to cooperate on the basis of common interests is one thing. Cooperating with Russia when Moscow is totally uninterested in cooperation and does not recognize any common interests is something else. The Transnistria problem should be solved by direct talks between its leaders and Chisinau on the basis of the same principles we have proclaimed elsewhere: the inviolability of state borders and the protection of the rights of ethnic minorities as the most effective way of allowing for national self-determination.
• And fifth, we need to offer a united Moldova immediate membership in NATO and together with our European allies put it on a fast track to European Union membership as well. Despite the vocabulary of many in Washington over the last two decades, one does not “qualify” for a defense alliance: countries are included because they are threatened and because their membership will help the alliance do its job. Moldova qualifies on both grounds.
In considering these ideas, we need to remember the implications of Winston Churchill’s 1944 observation about the United States. The British prime minister said at the time that “the Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing – after they’ve tried everything else.” We no longer have the luxury of getting things wrong a bunch of times before finally getting them right. We need to get things right early on – and Moldova is a good place to start.”
Paul Goble
A new football club has earned a leading place in the UEFA Champions League groups and starred in the headlines of worldwide football news yesterday. The Football Club Sheriff Tiraspol claimed a win with the score 2-1 against Real Madrid on the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid. That made Sheriff Tiraspol the leader in Group D of the Champions League, including the football club in the groups of the most important European interclub competition for the first time ever.
International media outlets called it a miracle, a shock and a historic event, while strongly emphasizing the origin of the team and the existing political conflict between the two banks of the Dniester. “Football club from a pro-Russian separatist enclave in Moldova pulls off one of the greatest upsets in Champions League history,” claimed the news portals. “Sheriff crushed Real!” they said.
Moldovans made a big fuss out of it on social media, splitting into two groups: those who praised the team and the Republic of Moldova for making history and those who declared that the football club and their merits belong to Transnistria – a problematic breakaway region that claims to be a separate country.
Both groups are right and not right at the same time, as there is a bunch of ethical, political, social and practical matters that need to be considered.
Is it Moldova?
First of all, every Moldovan either from the right or left bank of Dniester (Transnistria) is free to identify himself with this achievement or not to do so, said Vitalie Spranceana, a sociologist, blogger, journalist and urban activist. According to him, boycotting the football club for being a separatist team is wrong.
At the same time, “it’s an illusion to think that territory matters when it comes to football clubs,” Spranceana claimed. “Big teams, the ones included in the Champions League, have long lost their connection both with the countries in which they operate, and with the cities in which they appeared and to which they linked their history. […] In the age of globalized commercial football, teams, including the so-called local ones, are nothing more than global traveling commercial circuses, incidentally linked to cities, but more closely linked to all sorts of dirty, semi-dirty and cleaner cash flows.”
What is more important in this case is the consistency, not so much of citizens, as of politicians from the government who have “no right to celebrate the success of separatism,” as they represent “the national interests, not the personal or collective pleasures of certain segments of the population,” believes the political expert Dionis Cenusa. The victory of FC Sheriff encourages Transnistrian separatism, which receives validation now, he also stated.
“I don’t know how it happens that the “proud Moldovans who chose democracy”, in their enthusiasm for Sheriff Tiraspol’s victory over Real Madrid, forget the need for total and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria!” declared the journalist Vitalie Ciobanu.
Nowadays, FC Sheriff Tiraspol has no other choice than to represent Moldova internationally. For many years, the team used the Moldovan Football Federation in order to be able to participate in championships, including international ones. That is because the region remains unrecognised by the international community. However, the club’s victory is presented as that of Transnistria within the region, without any reference to the Republic of Moldova, its separatist character being applied in this case especially.
Is it a victory?
In fact, FC Sheriff Tiraspol joining the Champions League is a huge image breakthrough for the Transnistrian region, as the journalist Madalin Necsutu claimed. It is the success of the Tiraspol Club oligarchic patrons. From the practical point of view, FC Sheriff Tiraspol is a sports entity that serves its own interests and the interests of its owners, being dependent on the money invested by Tiraspol (but not only) oligarchs.
Here comes the real dilemma: the Transnistrian team, which is generously funded by money received from corruption schemes and money laundering, is waging an unequal fight with the rest of the Moldovan football clubs, the journalist also declared. The Tiraspol team is about to raise 15.6 million euro for reaching the Champions League groups and the amounts increase depending on their future performance. According to Necsutu, these money will go directly on the account of the club, not to the Moldovan Football Federation, creating an even bigger gab between FC Sheriff and other football clubs from Moldova who have much more modest financial possibilities.
“I do not see anything useful for Moldovan football, not a single Moldovan player is part of FC Sheriff Tiraspol. I do not see anything beneficial for the Moldovan Football Federation or any national team.”
Is it only about football?
FC Sheriff Tiraspol, with a total estimated value of 12.8 million euros, is controlled by Victor Gusan and Ilya Kazmala, being part of Sheriff Holding – a company that controls the trade of wholesale, retail food, fuels and medicine by having monopolies on these markets in Transnistria. The holding carries out car trading activities, but also operates in the field of construction and real estate. Gusan’s people also hold all of the main leadership offices in the breakaway region, from Parliament to the Prime Minister’s seat or the Presidency.
The football club is supported by a holding alleged of smuggling, corruption, money laundering and organised crime. Moldovan media outlets published investigations about the signals regarding the Sheriff’s holding involvement in the vote mobilization and remuneration of citizens on the left bank of the Dniester who participated in the snap parliamentary elections this summer and who were eager to vote for the pro-Russian socialist-communist bloc.
Considering the above, there is a great probability that the Republic of Moldova will still be represented by a football club that is not identified as being Moldovan, being funded from obscure money, growing in power and promoting the Transnistrian conflict in the future as well.
Photo: unknown
Prime Minister of the Republic of Moldova, Natalia Gavrilita, together with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nicu Popescu, pay an official visit to Brussels, between September 27-28, being invited by High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell Fontelles.
Today, Prime Minister had a meeting with Charles Michel, President of the European Council. The Moldovan PM thanked the senior European official for the support of the institution in strengthening democratic processes, reforming the judiciary and state institutions, economic recovery and job creation, as well as increasing citizens’ welfare. Natalia Gavrilita expressed her confidence that the current visit laid the foundations for boosting relations between the Republic of Moldova and the European Union, so that, in the next period, it would be possible to advance high-level dialogues on security, justice and energy. Officials also exchanged views on priorities for the Eastern Partnership Summit, to be held in December.
“The EU is open to continue to support the Republic of Moldova and the ambitious reform agenda it proposes. Moldova is an important and priority partner for us,” said Charles Michel.
Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita also met with Paolo Gentiloni, European Commissioner for Economy, expressing her gratitude for the support received through the OMNIBUS macro-financial assistance program. The two officials discussed the need to advance the recovery of money from bank fraud, to strengthen sustainable mechanisms for supporting small and medium-sized enterprises in Moldova, and to standardize the customs and taxes as one of the main conditions for deepening cooperation with the EU in this field.
Additionally, Prime Minister spoke about the importance of the Eastern Partnership and the Deep Free Trade Agreement, noting that the Government’s policies are aimed at developing an economic model aligned with the European economic model, focused on digitalization, energy efficiency and the green economy.
A common press release of the Moldovan Prime Minister with High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the Commission, Josep Borrell Fontelles, took place today, where the agenda of Moldova’s reforms and the main priorities to focus on in the coming months were presented: judiciary reform; fighting COVID-19 pandemic; promoting economic recovery and conditions for growth and job creation; strengthening state institutions and resilience of the country.
“I am here to relaunch the dialogue between my country and the European Union. Our partnership is strong, but I believe there is room for even deeper cooperation and stronger political, economic and sectoral ties. I am convinced that this partnership is the key to the prosperity of our country and I hope that we will continue to strengthen cooperation.”
The Moldovan delegation met Didier Reynders, European Commissioner for Justice. Tomorrow, there are scheduled common meetings with Oliver Varhelyi, European Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement, Adina Valean, European Commissioner for Transport and Kadri Simson, European Commissioner for Energy.
Prime Minister will also attend a public event, along with Katarina Mathernova, Deputy Director-General for Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations.
Photo: gov.md
Politics
Promo-LEX about Maia Sandu’s UN speech: The president must insist on appointing a rapporteur to monitor the situation of human rights in Transnistria
The President of the Republic of Moldova, Maia Sandu, pays an official visit to New York, USA, between September 21-22. There, she participates in the work of the United Nations General Assembly. According to a press release of the President’s Office, the official will deliver a speech at the tribune of the United Nations.
In this context, the Promo-LEX Association suggested the president to request the appointment of a special rapporteur in order to monitor the situation of human rights in the Transnistrian region. According to Promo-LEX, the responsibility for human rights violations in the Transnistrian region arises as a result of the Russian Federation’s military, economic and political control over the Tiraspol regime.
“We consider it imperative to insist on the observance of the international commitments assumed by the Russian Federation regarding the withdrawal of the armed forces and ammunition from the territory of the country,” the representatives of Promo-LEX stated. They consider the speech before the UN an opportunity “to demand the observance of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights by the Russian Federation with reference to this territory which is in its full control.”
“It is important to remember about the numerous cases of murder, torture, ill-treatment, forced enlistment in illegal military structures, the application of pseudo-justice in the Transnistrian region, all carried out under the tacit agreement of the Russian Federation. These findings stem from dozens of rulings and decisions issued by the European Court of Human Rights, which found that Russia is responsible for human rights violations in the region.”
The association representatives expressed their hope that the president of the country would give priority to issues related to the human rights situation in the Transnistrian region and would call on relevant international actors to contribute to guaranteeing fundamental human rights and freedoms throughout Moldova.
They asked Maia Sandu to insist on the observance of the obligation to evacuate the ammunition and the military units of the Russian Federation from the territory of the Republic of Moldova, to publicly support the need for the Russian Federation to implement the ECtHR rulings on human rights violations in the Transnistrian region, and to request the appointment of an UN Human Rights Council special rapporteur to monitor the human rights situation in the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova.
**
The Promo-LEX Association concluded that 14 out of 25 actions planned within the National Action Plan for the years 2018–2022 concerning respecting human rights in Transnistria were not carried out by the responsible authorities.
The association expressed its concern and mentioned that there are a large number of delays in the planned results. “There is a lack of communication and coordination between the designated institutions, which do not yet have a common vision of interaction for the implementation of the plan.”
Promo-LEX requested the Government of the Republic of Moldova to re-assess the reported activities and to take urgent measures, “which would exclude superficial implementation of future activities and increase the level of accountability of the authorities.”
Photo: peacekeeping.un.org
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