Politics
East goes back towards authoritarianism, South goes left
Reading Time: 3 minutesThe most striking and indeed astonishing feature of this autumn’s political landscape in the European neighbourhood is the contradictory trend as between East and South. East Europe is reverting back towards authoritarianism, while the Arab world proceeds with its anti-authoritarian revolution. Neither region is homogenous, of course. But the mainstream tendencies are clear.
By Michael Emerson/ Brussels / — The most striking and indeed astonishing feature of this autumn’s political landscape in the European neighbourhood is the contradictory trend as between East and South. East Europe is reverting back towards authoritarianism, while the Arab world proceeds with its anti-authoritarian revolution. Neither region is homogenous, of course. But the mainstream tendencies are clear.
Vladimir Putin has decided to stand again in 2012 for President, which with two six year terms ahead in prospect could take him to 2014, in all a 24 year rule, getting comparable to the records of many of the world’s notable dictatorships (23 years for Ben Ali, 30 for Mubarak, 20 for Sukarno and 30 for Suharto in Indonesia, 20 for Marcos in the Philippines, etc.). Medvedev’s speeches about democracy, the rule of law and modernisation turned out to be no more than fluff, as many always argued. It is still possible that Medvedev was over the last year testing the waters with the outline of an election campaign that would have been more liberal. Maybe, but in any case it never acquired real traction, and so he gave up.
Meanwhile President Yanukovich has been steadily clamping down on effective civil liberties and democratic practice in Ukraine. But the signature event of his leadership has now become the imprisonment of Yulia Timoshenko for seven years for abuse of office despite warnings for the EU that it could put into the freezer the draft Association Agreement and the draft Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement. As a result Yanukovich’s scheduled visit to Brussels in mid-October, intended to firm up these agreements, was postponed until – according the diplomatic language of Van Rompuy – more propitious times.
And now Putin announces his plan for a Eurasian Union, in which he would like to include as many post-Soviet states as possible, from Belarus to Tajikistan. In Eastern Europe both Belarus and Azerbaijan are solidly authoritarian. That just leaves Moldova as passably democratic, while Georgia hardly passes. For Armenia kleptocracy is the first word that still comes to mind, although the forthcoming parliamentary elections in 2012 will see a vigorous contest.
The Arab Spring, now surely the Arab Revolution of 2011, has seen the fall of three dictators already (Ben Ali, Mubarak, Khadaffi), with two more in the pipeline (Assad and Saleh). Others are pushed in a more democratic direction, making limited or at least token concessions for greater political participation as in Morocco and Jordan, and even in Saudi Arabia with women to vote in local elections.
But what of the sustainability of these new tendencies, of the reinforced authoritarianism to the East, or the new democratic liberalism to the South? The first warning is sent from East to South. It is only five years since the so-called ‘colour revolutions’ had their day in Ukraine and Georgia, to the point that Putin had also his moment of concern over whether this would become one of history’s uncontrollable contagious revolutions (as in Europe in 1848 or 1989-91). The Orange Revolution in Ukraine and Rose Revolution in Georgia witnessed wonderfully happy scenes in the streets of Kiev and Tbilisi, with popular and peaceful regime overthrow. Roughly comparable to Tunisia so far. But the Yushchenko-Timoshenko post-revolutionary regime proved disastrously dysfunctional, while the Saakashvili regime became less and less democratic.
Tunisia is so far top of the Arab class. Egypt’s revolution is being managed still be the military, and the debate there is over which of the two Turkish models may come to the fore, the military one of the second half of the 20th century, or the democratic Islamic one of the first decade of the 21st century. Yet more problematic are the cases that have fallen prey to civil wars, as in Libya now just ended, while Syria’s brutal repression of over six months and the fighting in Yemen are both ongoing virtual civil wars. Unfortunately the track record of what follows civil war is ominous, sometimes leading to an outright victor who assumes authoritarian rule, sometimes to deadlock with descent into the realm of the failed state, as all too clearly seen in nearby Somalia. A further post-revolutionary syndrome is where an initial attempt at liberal democracy fails to work effectively and gives way to violent ideological radicalisation, as in Iran in 1978 and in several other famous revolutions (Robespierre’s Reign of Terror, Lenin and the Bolshevics, or Mao’s Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution).
The currently divergence between East and South looks like something of strategic importance for the wider European neighbourhood. Already it turns upside down the prior assumption that East Europe democratises slowly but steadily, whereas the Arab states of the South Mediterranean remain stuck with their long-term authoritarian leaderships. But maybe one should not extrapolate this too easily. Maybe Russians will come to tire of Putin well before the end of his next two six year terms, and perhaps much sooner Ukrainians will tire of Yanukovich, while the potential for counter-revolution in the Arab world should not be discounted.
—
Michael Emerson is CEPS Associate Senior Research Fellow based in Brussels.
A new football club has earned a leading place in the UEFA Champions League groups and starred in the headlines of worldwide football news yesterday. The Football Club Sheriff Tiraspol claimed a win with the score 2-1 against Real Madrid on the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid. That made Sheriff Tiraspol the leader in Group D of the Champions League, including the football club in the groups of the most important European interclub competition for the first time ever.
International media outlets called it a miracle, a shock and a historic event, while strongly emphasizing the origin of the team and the existing political conflict between the two banks of the Dniester. “Football club from a pro-Russian separatist enclave in Moldova pulls off one of the greatest upsets in Champions League history,” claimed the news portals. “Sheriff crushed Real!” they said.
Moldovans made a big fuss out of it on social media, splitting into two groups: those who praised the team and the Republic of Moldova for making history and those who declared that the football club and their merits belong to Transnistria – a problematic breakaway region that claims to be a separate country.
Both groups are right and not right at the same time, as there is a bunch of ethical, political, social and practical matters that need to be considered.
Is it Moldova?
First of all, every Moldovan either from the right or left bank of Dniester (Transnistria) is free to identify himself with this achievement or not to do so, said Vitalie Spranceana, a sociologist, blogger, journalist and urban activist. According to him, boycotting the football club for being a separatist team is wrong.
At the same time, “it’s an illusion to think that territory matters when it comes to football clubs,” Spranceana claimed. “Big teams, the ones included in the Champions League, have long lost their connection both with the countries in which they operate, and with the cities in which they appeared and to which they linked their history. […] In the age of globalized commercial football, teams, including the so-called local ones, are nothing more than global traveling commercial circuses, incidentally linked to cities, but more closely linked to all sorts of dirty, semi-dirty and cleaner cash flows.”
What is more important in this case is the consistency, not so much of citizens, as of politicians from the government who have “no right to celebrate the success of separatism,” as they represent “the national interests, not the personal or collective pleasures of certain segments of the population,” believes the political expert Dionis Cenusa. The victory of FC Sheriff encourages Transnistrian separatism, which receives validation now, he also stated.
“I don’t know how it happens that the “proud Moldovans who chose democracy”, in their enthusiasm for Sheriff Tiraspol’s victory over Real Madrid, forget the need for total and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria!” declared the journalist Vitalie Ciobanu.
Nowadays, FC Sheriff Tiraspol has no other choice than to represent Moldova internationally. For many years, the team used the Moldovan Football Federation in order to be able to participate in championships, including international ones. That is because the region remains unrecognised by the international community. However, the club’s victory is presented as that of Transnistria within the region, without any reference to the Republic of Moldova, its separatist character being applied in this case especially.
Is it a victory?
In fact, FC Sheriff Tiraspol joining the Champions League is a huge image breakthrough for the Transnistrian region, as the journalist Madalin Necsutu claimed. It is the success of the Tiraspol Club oligarchic patrons. From the practical point of view, FC Sheriff Tiraspol is a sports entity that serves its own interests and the interests of its owners, being dependent on the money invested by Tiraspol (but not only) oligarchs.
Here comes the real dilemma: the Transnistrian team, which is generously funded by money received from corruption schemes and money laundering, is waging an unequal fight with the rest of the Moldovan football clubs, the journalist also declared. The Tiraspol team is about to raise 15.6 million euro for reaching the Champions League groups and the amounts increase depending on their future performance. According to Necsutu, these money will go directly on the account of the club, not to the Moldovan Football Federation, creating an even bigger gab between FC Sheriff and other football clubs from Moldova who have much more modest financial possibilities.
“I do not see anything useful for Moldovan football, not a single Moldovan player is part of FC Sheriff Tiraspol. I do not see anything beneficial for the Moldovan Football Federation or any national team.”
Is it only about football?
FC Sheriff Tiraspol, with a total estimated value of 12.8 million euros, is controlled by Victor Gusan and Ilya Kazmala, being part of Sheriff Holding – a company that controls the trade of wholesale, retail food, fuels and medicine by having monopolies on these markets in Transnistria. The holding carries out car trading activities, but also operates in the field of construction and real estate. Gusan’s people also hold all of the main leadership offices in the breakaway region, from Parliament to the Prime Minister’s seat or the Presidency.
The football club is supported by a holding alleged of smuggling, corruption, money laundering and organised crime. Moldovan media outlets published investigations about the signals regarding the Sheriff’s holding involvement in the vote mobilization and remuneration of citizens on the left bank of the Dniester who participated in the snap parliamentary elections this summer and who were eager to vote for the pro-Russian socialist-communist bloc.
Considering the above, there is a great probability that the Republic of Moldova will still be represented by a football club that is not identified as being Moldovan, being funded from obscure money, growing in power and promoting the Transnistrian conflict in the future as well.
Photo: unknown
Prime Minister of the Republic of Moldova, Natalia Gavrilita, together with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nicu Popescu, pay an official visit to Brussels, between September 27-28, being invited by High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell Fontelles.
Today, Prime Minister had a meeting with Charles Michel, President of the European Council. The Moldovan PM thanked the senior European official for the support of the institution in strengthening democratic processes, reforming the judiciary and state institutions, economic recovery and job creation, as well as increasing citizens’ welfare. Natalia Gavrilita expressed her confidence that the current visit laid the foundations for boosting relations between the Republic of Moldova and the European Union, so that, in the next period, it would be possible to advance high-level dialogues on security, justice and energy. Officials also exchanged views on priorities for the Eastern Partnership Summit, to be held in December.
“The EU is open to continue to support the Republic of Moldova and the ambitious reform agenda it proposes. Moldova is an important and priority partner for us,” said Charles Michel.
Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita also met with Paolo Gentiloni, European Commissioner for Economy, expressing her gratitude for the support received through the OMNIBUS macro-financial assistance program. The two officials discussed the need to advance the recovery of money from bank fraud, to strengthen sustainable mechanisms for supporting small and medium-sized enterprises in Moldova, and to standardize the customs and taxes as one of the main conditions for deepening cooperation with the EU in this field.
Additionally, Prime Minister spoke about the importance of the Eastern Partnership and the Deep Free Trade Agreement, noting that the Government’s policies are aimed at developing an economic model aligned with the European economic model, focused on digitalization, energy efficiency and the green economy.
A common press release of the Moldovan Prime Minister with High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the Commission, Josep Borrell Fontelles, took place today, where the agenda of Moldova’s reforms and the main priorities to focus on in the coming months were presented: judiciary reform; fighting COVID-19 pandemic; promoting economic recovery and conditions for growth and job creation; strengthening state institutions and resilience of the country.
“I am here to relaunch the dialogue between my country and the European Union. Our partnership is strong, but I believe there is room for even deeper cooperation and stronger political, economic and sectoral ties. I am convinced that this partnership is the key to the prosperity of our country and I hope that we will continue to strengthen cooperation.”
The Moldovan delegation met Didier Reynders, European Commissioner for Justice. Tomorrow, there are scheduled common meetings with Oliver Varhelyi, European Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement, Adina Valean, European Commissioner for Transport and Kadri Simson, European Commissioner for Energy.
Prime Minister will also attend a public event, along with Katarina Mathernova, Deputy Director-General for Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations.
Photo: gov.md
Politics
Promo-LEX about Maia Sandu’s UN speech: The president must insist on appointing a rapporteur to monitor the situation of human rights in Transnistria
The President of the Republic of Moldova, Maia Sandu, pays an official visit to New York, USA, between September 21-22. There, she participates in the work of the United Nations General Assembly. According to a press release of the President’s Office, the official will deliver a speech at the tribune of the United Nations.
In this context, the Promo-LEX Association suggested the president to request the appointment of a special rapporteur in order to monitor the situation of human rights in the Transnistrian region. According to Promo-LEX, the responsibility for human rights violations in the Transnistrian region arises as a result of the Russian Federation’s military, economic and political control over the Tiraspol regime.
“We consider it imperative to insist on the observance of the international commitments assumed by the Russian Federation regarding the withdrawal of the armed forces and ammunition from the territory of the country,” the representatives of Promo-LEX stated. They consider the speech before the UN an opportunity “to demand the observance of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights by the Russian Federation with reference to this territory which is in its full control.”
“It is important to remember about the numerous cases of murder, torture, ill-treatment, forced enlistment in illegal military structures, the application of pseudo-justice in the Transnistrian region, all carried out under the tacit agreement of the Russian Federation. These findings stem from dozens of rulings and decisions issued by the European Court of Human Rights, which found that Russia is responsible for human rights violations in the region.”
The association representatives expressed their hope that the president of the country would give priority to issues related to the human rights situation in the Transnistrian region and would call on relevant international actors to contribute to guaranteeing fundamental human rights and freedoms throughout Moldova.
They asked Maia Sandu to insist on the observance of the obligation to evacuate the ammunition and the military units of the Russian Federation from the territory of the Republic of Moldova, to publicly support the need for the Russian Federation to implement the ECtHR rulings on human rights violations in the Transnistrian region, and to request the appointment of an UN Human Rights Council special rapporteur to monitor the human rights situation in the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova.
**
The Promo-LEX Association concluded that 14 out of 25 actions planned within the National Action Plan for the years 2018–2022 concerning respecting human rights in Transnistria were not carried out by the responsible authorities.
The association expressed its concern and mentioned that there are a large number of delays in the planned results. “There is a lack of communication and coordination between the designated institutions, which do not yet have a common vision of interaction for the implementation of the plan.”
Promo-LEX requested the Government of the Republic of Moldova to re-assess the reported activities and to take urgent measures, “which would exclude superficial implementation of future activities and increase the level of accountability of the authorities.”
Photo: peacekeeping.un.org
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